Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
34.8 mana
Total volume
34.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 19, 2026, 4:01 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 62.6% (down from 70.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 34.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (4.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
34.8 mana
Total volume
34.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
3
Trades
11
over 11h
Largest order
10 mana
26.3 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 11h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Cygames or event organizers officially announce the cancellation of either or both scheduled dates (October 22–23, 2026) of the Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES at the Peacock Theater, or if the live performances fail to take place as scheduled due to visa or operational issues. This market resolves to NO if the event goes ahea…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Cygames or event organizers officially announce the cancellation of either or both scheduled dates (October 22–23, 2026) of the Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES at the Peacock Theater, or if the live performances fail to take place as scheduled due to visa or operational issues. This market resolves to NO if the event goes ahead as scheduled on October 22–23, 2026 (even if modified, such as with a reduced or altered cast lineup). Resolution details: An announcement of outright cancellation or indefinite postponement without rescheduled dates during the original October 22–23 timeframe will resolve to YES. Postponing the event to a future date outside the October 22–23, 2026 window resolves to YES. Official announcements posted via the Official 7th Event Website or official Umamusume social media/PR channels will serve as primary resolution sources. Background The Los Angeles stop of Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE is scheduled for October 22–23, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California. On October 18/19, organizers announced that required US visas had not yet been approved despite working on them for over six months. Management stated they are coordinating to secure approval in time and will deliver a final decision regarding whether the concerts can proceed by 10:00 PM Pacific Time on October 19, 2026. The official announcement's text: Regarding the 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES Thank you for your continued support of Umamusume: Pretty Derby. In preparation for the 7th EVENT: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES concerts planned for Oct 22–23, 2026, we had been working with lawyers and promoters in the US to secure the visas necessary to enter the US since over six months ago, but as of now the visas have yet to be approved. As such, we are coordinating with all parties concerned to explore every possible option to get the visas approved in time to make the concerts happen. Our final decision on whether or not it will be possible to hold the concerts will be announced by 10 p.m., Oct 19 (PT), so we ask for your patience until then. To all the Trainers who have been eagerly looking forward to the show, we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience and concern this causes, and for announcing this so close to the event date.
The probability fell 7.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (70.0% → 62.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 4:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.