ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noiseUpdated 12m ago

[ULTRA SHORT FUSE ~24h] Will the Uma Musume 7th live be cancelled?

As of Oct 19, 2026, 4:01 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 62.6% (down from 70.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 34.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
62.6%
−7.4 percentage points
over 24 hours70.0% → 62.6%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

34.8 mana

Total volume

34.8 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
57%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

3

Trades

11

over 11h

Largest order

10 mana

26.3 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 11h).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$26.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Cygames or event organizers officially announce the cancellation of either or both scheduled dates (October 22–23, 2026) of the Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES at the Peacock Theater, or if the live performances fail to take place as scheduled due to visa or operational issues. This market resolves to NO if the event goes ahea…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Cygames or event organizers officially announce the cancellation of either or both scheduled dates (October 22–23, 2026) of the Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES at the Peacock Theater, or if the live performances fail to take place as scheduled due to visa or operational issues. This market resolves to NO if the event goes ahead as scheduled on October 22–23, 2026 (even if modified, such as with a reduced or altered cast lineup). Resolution details: An announcement of outright cancellation or indefinite postponement without rescheduled dates during the original October 22–23 timeframe will resolve to YES. Postponing the event to a future date outside the October 22–23, 2026 window resolves to YES. Official announcements posted via the Official 7th Event Website or official Umamusume social media/PR channels will serve as primary resolution sources. Background The Los Angeles stop of Umamusume: Pretty Derby – 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE is scheduled for October 22–23, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California. On October 18/19, organizers announced that required US visas had not yet been approved despite working on them for over six months. Management stated they are coordinating to secure approval in time and will deliver a final decision regarding whether the concerts can proceed by 10:00 PM Pacific Time on October 19, 2026. The official announcement's text: Regarding the 7th EVENT WORLD TOUR: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES  Thank you for your continued support of Umamusume: Pretty Derby. In preparation for the 7th EVENT: THE STAGE in LOS ANGELES concerts planned for Oct 22–23, 2026, we had been working with lawyers and promoters in the US to secure the visas necessary to enter the US since over six months ago, but as of now the visas have yet to be approved. As such, we are coordinating with all parties concerned to explore every possible option to get the visas approved in time to make the concerts happen.  Our final decision on whether or not it will be possible to hold the concerts will be announced by 10 p.m., Oct 19 (PT), so we ask for your patience until then. To all the Trainers who have been eagerly looking forward to the show, we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience and concern this causes, and for announcing this so close to the event date.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 7.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (70.0% → 62.6%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeOctober 20, 2026 at 1:59 AM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 4:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next649 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-4.924H-7.47D-7.4

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