Will Hawaii Question 1 (more Senate time for judicial appointments) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Hawaii Question 1 (Increasing the Timeframe for the Hawaii Senate to Consider and Act on Judicial Appointments.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes tallied on the question AND yes votes ≥50% of all ballots cast at the election (Haw. Const. art. XVII §3; blank/over votes effectively count against). Turnout-style rule: yes votes must be at least 50% of total ballots cast in the general election, not just of votes on the question. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Senate gets 60 days (up from 30) to consider and act on judicial appointments made April 1–December 31 outside/at end of regular session. NO: The Senate's 30-day window to act on those judicial appointments stays. Results: resolves on the result certified by Hawaii Chief Election Officer (Office of Elections). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://elections.hawaii.gov/voting/2026-proposed-amendments-to-the-hawaii-state-constitution/