I woke up to find 500 unique traders in my markets today. Will I reach 900 by 7/17/26?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.0%.
- Final market price
- 67.0%
- Event deadline
- July 16, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 67.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 67.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
I woke up to find 500 unique traders in my markets today. Will I reach 900 by 7/17/26? The final Manifold price was 67.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 6, 2026 at 1:39 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 16, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 107d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the creator's Manifold profile displays a total of 900 or more unique traders at any point on or before July 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market resolves to NO if the creator's unique trader count remains below 900 at the deadline.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the creator's Manifold profile displays a total of 900 or more unique traders at any point on or before July 17, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market resolves to NO if the creator's unique trader count remains below 900 at the deadline. Source of Truth: The unique trader count displayed on the creator's Manifold profile page. The creator will resolve this market based on their profile statistics. Background On June 16, 2026, the creator reached a milestone of 500 unique traders across their markets. This market tracks whether they can grow their audience by an additional 400 unique traders to reach the 900-trader mark within approximately one month (by July 17, 2026). This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.