Will Rebeca Grynspan still lead the UN Secretary-General straw poll after Ivonne Baki joins the race?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 68.9%.
- Final market price
- 68.9%
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Rebeca Grynspan still lead the UN Secretary-General straw poll after Ivonne Baki joins the race? The final Manifold price was 68.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 68.9%.
- Market data as of
- August 24, 2026 at 7:31 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 58d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution Criteria Resolve YES if Rebeca Grynspan receives strictly more “encourage” votes than any other candidate in the next informal United Nations Security Council straw poll for the selection of the next UN Secretary-General held after Ivonne Baki entered the race. A tie for the highest number of “encourage” votes does not count as leading and will resolve NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution Criteria Resolve YES if Rebeca Grynspan receives strictly more “encourage” votes than any other candidate in the next informal United Nations Security Council straw poll for the selection of the next UN Secretary-General held after Ivonne Baki entered the race. A tie for the highest number of “encourage” votes does not count as leading and will resolve NO. All candidates participating in that straw poll will be considered, including Ivonne Baki if she is included in the poll. The result will be determined based on reporting from Reuters, the Associated Press, or other highly reliable sources citing diplomats or officials familiar with the straw poll results. The relevant straw poll is currently expected to take place on August 21, 2026. If it is postponed, the rescheduled next straw poll will be used, provided it takes place by August 24, 2026. If no qualifying straw poll takes place by August 24, 2026, the market will resolve N/A.