ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechUpdated 32d ago

Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?

Final price

62.1%

0.0 pts

past 24h

Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 62.1%.

Final market price: 62.1%
Event deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline: 62.1%
Probability seven days before event deadline: 62.1%
Venue status: resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026? The final Manifold price was 62.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 62.1%.

Market data as of: September 19, 2026 at 12:29 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated: October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
Source: Manifold
Event deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Market status: Resolved
Data updated: 32d ago

What this market actually measures

https://www.felonybench.com/ OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are the only current contenders.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

https://www.felonybench.com/ OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta are the only current contenders.