Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 2.3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 2.3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 13, 12:30 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
What's happening
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
- Executed flow buy-heavy (67%)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ121
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ121
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 54.8%
- 7-day range
- 52.4% – 54.8%
- Resolves
- Sep 20, 2026