Will May 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 65.0%.
- Final market price
- 65.0%
- Event deadline
- June 15, 2026 at 9:10 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 65.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 65.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 17, 2026 at 5:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 15, 2026 at 9:10 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 79d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026 reports that total U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% or more month-over-month.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026 reports that total U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the total industrial production index monthly percent change from April 2026 to May 2026 in the initial May 2026 G.17 release. Resolve NO if that total-index monthly percent change is 0.2% or lower. Do not use capacity utilization, manufacturing-only output, mining-only output, utilities output, major market-group output, year-over-year industrial production, or later annual revisions unless the Federal Reserve corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 G.17 release is delayed, wait for the first Federal Reserve G.17 release containing the May 2026 total industrial production monthly percent change unless there is no such release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"capacity_utilization_april_2026": 76.1, "manufacturing_output_april_2026_mom": 0.6, "release": "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, April 2026", "total_industrial_production_april_2026_mom": 0.7, "total_industrial_production_february_2026_mom": 0.6, "total_industrial_production_january_2026_mom": 0.0, "total_industrial_production_march_2026_mom": -0.3}, "metric": "Total industrial production index monthly percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["Capacity-utilization markets are not duplicates.", "Manufacturing-only, mining-only, utilities-only, or market-group industrial-production markets are not duplicates.", "Year-over-year industrial-production markets are not duplicates of the total-index monthly percent-change predicate."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve G.17 release-date page lists June 15, 2026 for the next monthly release, and says monthly releases are issued at 9:15 a.m.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for May 2026"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Federal Reserve G.17 release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g17/default.htm - Federal Reserve current G.17 release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 PDF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf - Federal Reserve historical G.17 release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/release_dates.htm
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 65.0%
- Resolves
- Jun 15, 2026