Will I read 50+ books this year?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 27, 6:11 AM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
As of Aug 11, I've read 43 books. But, I'm starting grad school later this month, so my free time will go down significantly after that.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
As of Aug 11, I've read 43 books. But, I'm starting grad school later this month, so my free time will go down significantly after that. Which books count? Audiobooks count, but books assigned by school don't. I have to finish books this year to count: I counted books that I started last year, and if I finish 95% of a book this year, it doesn't count. I don't have a clear dividing line between a short story and a book: I just sorta play it by ear. What books do I read? A wide variety: This year I've read everything from "Dungeon Crawler Carl" to "Ulysses" to a book about the hydrology of the Utah Salt flats. In school I expect that I'll stick to easier (and thus quicker) books I'm not going to push myself hard toward getting 50 read: grad school is more important than reaching an arbitrary threshold. But I like reading, and read in my free time (sometimes more than I should, given my homework load)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 27, 6:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ92.2
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 64.6%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026