Diesel prices highest in history by EOY?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.7%.
- Final market price
- 95.7%
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 9:46 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Diesel prices highest in history by EOY? The final Manifold price was 95.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 95.7%.
- Market data as of
- September 7, 2026 at 9:35 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 9:46 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the weekly U.S. National Average On-Highway Diesel Price reaches or exceeds $5.8159 per gallon (matching the historical all-time high of $5.8159 per gallon set the week of June 20, 2022) on any weekly update published on or before December 31, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the weekly U.S. National Average On-Highway Diesel Price reaches or exceeds $5.8159 per gallon (matching the historical all-time high of $5.8159 per gallon set the week of June 20, 2022) on any weekly update published on or before December 31, 2026. If the reported price does not reach $5.8159 per gallon by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO. Primary source: AAA Gas Tracker Background The previous all-time nominal peak for U.S. retail diesel was $5.8159 per gallon, recorded in June 2022 during the global energy shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2026, diesel prices surged again due to severe disruptions in global refining capacity, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East affecting supply routes, and drone strikes on Russian refineries. By early September 2026, the national average had climbed back to $5.6879 per gallon, putting the historical record within reach. Diesel is a vital macroeconomic input for shipping, trucking, and agriculture; sustained elevated prices continue to put upward pressure on shipping surcharges and core inflation.