Will I succeed in teaching my deaf grandmother 20 words in sign language by 12 PM Saturday, June 13?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.8%.
- Final market price
- 67.8%
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 7:59 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I succeed in teaching my deaf grandmother 20 words in sign language by 12 PM Saturday, June 13? The final Manifold price was 67.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.8%.
- Market data as of
- June 16, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 7:59 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 127d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 13, 2026, I have successfully taught my deaf grandmother at least 20 distinct words/concepts in sign language. "Successfully taught" is defined as her ability to either correctly produce the sign when prompted, or correctly comprehend and translate the sign when I perform it, for at least 20 unique vocabulary words.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 13, 2026, I have successfully taught my deaf grandmother at least 20 distinct words/concepts in sign language. "Successfully taught" is defined as her ability to either correctly produce the sign when prompted, or correctly comprehend and translate the sign when I perform it, for at least 20 unique vocabulary words. This market will resolve based on my honest self-report of the outcome. If she is unable to demonstrate knowledge of at least 20 words by the deadline, this market resolves to NO. Background Learning basic signs is a common and effective way to establish or improve communication with deaf family members who did not learn sign language early in life. Acquiring a vocabulary of 20 high-frequency signs (such as "eat," "drink," "more," "help," or family names) is highly feasible within a short timeframe, though the rate of retention can vary based on practice time, physical dexterity, and cognitive load.