Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026?
Source: Manifold price history
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 65.8%.
- Final market price
- 65.8%
- Event deadline
- November 20, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 65.8%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 65.8%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026? The final Manifold price was 65.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 65.8%.
- Market data as of
- October 22, 2026 at 5:34 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 22, 2026 at 5:38 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 20, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 5m ago
What this market actually measures
Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q2 2026 was 1.4% (GAAP income from operations of $398 million on total revenues of $28.24 billion), down from 4.1% in Q2 2025 and 4.2% in Q1 2026. This market asks whether Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q3 2026 comes in below 2%.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q2 2026 was 1.4% (GAAP income from operations of $398 million on total revenues of $28.24 billion), down from 4.1% in Q2 2025 and 4.2% in Q1 2026. This market asks whether Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q3 2026 comes in below 2%. Resolution source: Tesla's official Q3 2026 financial results, specifically the "Operating margin (GAAP)" figure in Tesla's Q3 2026 Update deck posted at ir.tesla.com and the corresponding financial statements furnished in Tesla's Form 8-K (and, if needed, the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q filed with the SEC). Resolves YES if Tesla's reported GAAP operating margin for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 is below 2.00%. Resolves NO if it is 2.00% or higher. If Tesla reports a rounded figure of exactly 2.0%, the market resolves on the underlying arithmetic: GAAP income from operations divided by total revenues for Q3 2026, taken from Tesla's reported consolidated statement of operations, resolving YES only if that ratio is strictly below 2.00%. A GAAP operating loss (negative operating income) resolves YES. Only Tesla's GAAP figures count. Non-GAAP, adjusted, or segment-level margins do not determine resolution. If Tesla later restates the figure, the first officially published Q3 2026 number governs. Resolution deadline: 2026-11-15. Tesla has reported Q3 results in late October in each recent year and reported Q1 2026 on April 22, 2026 and Q2 2026 on July 22, 2026 (roughly three weeks after quarter end), and its Form 10-Q for the quarter is due in early November, so the deciding number will be public well before this date. If Tesla has published no Q3 2026 GAAP operating margin or income statement by 2026-11-15, the market resolves N/A.