Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.0%.
- Final market price
- 96.0%
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 96.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 96.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026? The final Manifold price was 96.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 12, 2026 at 2:21 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 131d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves yes if any model is released to the public by Anthropic with "Mythos" in the name by 11:59 pm ET June 30th, 2026. It resolves no otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves yes if any model is released to the public by Anthropic with "Mythos" in the name by 11:59 pm ET June 30th, 2026. It resolves no otherwise. A model is considered publicly released if it is released via the API, on the web app, in Claude code, or in any other place that can be reached by the general public. The model does not need to be released to all tiers of Claude subscribers. I may trade on this market. Update 2026-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A yes resolution will also occur if a publicly released model's system card indicates it is a Mythos class model or that it shares underlying weights with Mythos, even if the literal model name does not include "Mythos".