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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 65d ago

Will May 2026 U.S. disposable personal income rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Final price
60.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 60.0%.

Final market price
60.0%
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will May 2026 U.S. disposable personal income rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 60.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 60.0%.

Market data as of
July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
65d ago

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the headline DPI monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the headline DPI monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline DPI value is +0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline personal income, real disposable personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline DPI month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_billions_change": -19.9, "april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI), headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline personal income markets are not duplicates.", "PCE spending, headline/core PCE inflation, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, real-income, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.3% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ47.3

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ90.7

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
60.0%
Resolves
Jun 25, 2026

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