Will Iowa Amendment 1 (two-thirds vote for income tax increases) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Iowa Amendment 1 (Shall the following amendment to the Constitution be adopted? (new Article XIII: two-thirds vote of each house required to raise income tax rates or create a new income tax)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the amendment (Iowa Const. art. X, sec. 1) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Adds new Article XIII: bills raising income-type tax rates or creating a new tax on income or legal and special reserves need 2/3 of members elected to each house. NO: Constitution unchanged; such tax bills keep needing a simple majority. Results: resolves on the result certified by Iowa State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/aco/bulletincontent/06-24-2026.Regulatory%20Analysis_1780517797265.pdf