Market prices a 39.2% chance of “Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026” — down 0.8 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?”
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 6:27 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ2
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ2
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest