Will July 2026 U.S. average hourly earnings rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Resolution

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026 reports that average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose at least 0.3% month-over-month. Use the BLS-reported seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. A reported value of +0.3% or higher resolves YES. A reported value below +0.3% resolves NO. If the release gives dollars/cents but not a percent change, use the seasonally adjusted average-hourly-earnings values for June and July 2026 in the initial BLS release to compute the month-over-month percent change. Do not use nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, labor-force participation, household-survey employment, CPI/PPI/PCE inflation, aggregate payrolls, average weekly earnings, hours worked, forecast consensus, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, subindustry-only earnings, production-and-nonsupervisory-only earnings, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the July 2026 average-hourly-earnings month-over-month value unless there is no such release by August 14, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"may_2026_average_hourly_earnings_level_usd": 37.53, "may_2026_average_hourly_earnings_mom": 0.3, "may_2026_average_hourly_earnings_yoy": 3.4, "may_2026_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 172000, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["July 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change, unemployment-rate, U-6, labor-force-participation, household-employment, claims, ADP, and JOLTS markets are not duplicates.", "June 2026 average-hourly-earnings markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "CPI, PPI, PCE, personal income, disposable income, aggregate payrolls, weekly earnings, hours worked, and forecast-consensus markets are not duplicates.", "Subindustry-only earnings, production-and-nonsupervisory-only earnings, state, metro, or demographic wage markets are not exact duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BLS schedules the July 2026 Employment Situation release for 2026-08-07 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS selected 2026 releases schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/current_year.asp - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm - BLS Employment Situation table B-3: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm