Iran leadership change by August 31?
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.
- Final market price
- 0.1%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Iran leadership change by August 31? The final Polymarket price was 0.1%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.
- Market data as of
- September 1, 2026 at 2:13 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 15, 2026 at 6:12 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 14d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market data
24h volume
$13.8K
Liquidity
$68.6K
Total volume
$1.6M
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.0 pts
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 0.1%
- Resolves
- Aug 31, 2026