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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 14d ago

Iran leadership change by August 31?

Final price
0.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Final market price
0.1%
Event deadline
August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Iran leadership change by August 31? The final Polymarket price was 0.1%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Market data as of
September 1, 2026 at 2:13 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 15, 2026 at 6:12 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
14d ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market data

24h volume

$13.8K

Liquidity

$68.6K

Total volume

$1.6M

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
Resolves
Aug 31, 2026

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