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Monday, August 31, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (67 in 24h)
- Any new Claude or GPT before end of August 2026?Manifoldno
- Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?Manifoldno
- Will Oilrats reach 250k subscribers by the end of August?Manifoldno
- Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?Manifoldno
- Will Grok 4.7 be released by the end of August 2026?Manifoldno
- TONIGHT WE STEAL THE MOONManifoldyes
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Polymarketyes
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.