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Monday, August 31, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 23.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 16.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 16.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (65 in 24h)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 24-30?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 24-30?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 24-30?Polymarketno
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Polymarketyes
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