Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 5.0%.
- Final market price
- 5.0%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August? The final Manifold price was 5.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 5.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 2, 2026 at 2:13 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 16, 2026 at 4:56 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
Karoline Leavitt will step down as White House press secretary, Trump says This market resolves to YES if, on or before August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the Trump administration officially names, appoints, or installs a new individual to serve as either the permanent, interim, or acting White House Press Secretary. To resolve YES, the official announcement of the successor or acting successor must be made by Presiden…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Karoline Leavitt will step down as White House press secretary, Trump says This market resolves to YES if, on or before August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the Trump administration officially names, appoints, or installs a new individual to serve as either the permanent, interim, or acting White House Press Secretary. To resolve YES, the official announcement of the successor or acting successor must be made by President Donald Trump, the White House, or an official administration spokesperson by the deadline. This market resolves to NO if: No successor or acting successor is officially announced by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET (even if Karoline Leavitt has vacated the post). Karoline Leavitt remains in the role past August 31, 2026, and no successor is named. The primary sources of truth will be official statements from the White House, President Trump's official communications (including on Truth Social), and verification from major news outlets (such as AP News, Reuters, or Axios).