Market prices an 84.5% chance of “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31” — down 2 points in 24 hours
Original Polymarket title: “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?”
Confirmed repricing, but the latest probability is still moving.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 3:14 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Market data
24h volume
$54.5K
Liquidity
$72.3K