Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 2.1%.
- Final market price
- 2.1%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August? The final Manifold price was 2.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 2.1%.
- Market data as of
- September 2, 2026 at 8:21 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 16, 2026 at 4:53 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
[tweet]YES if, by August 31, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments or main theorems in OpenAI's "Ten Advances" is fatally flawed or incorrect. Otherwise, resolves NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
[tweet]YES if, by August 31, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments or main theorems in OpenAI's "Ten Advances" is fatally flawed or incorrect. Otherwise, resolves NO. "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch. Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.