Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.8%.
- Final market price
- 96.8%
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 3:33 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th? The final Manifold price was 96.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.8%.
- Market data as of
- September 7, 2026 at 7:15 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 7, 2026 at 7:20 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 3:33 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 5m ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves yes if a model called GPT-6, or any variant thereof (gpt-6 sol, gpt-6 codex, gpt 6.1, etc) is released by OpenAI by September 15th 11:59 pm ET. A model is considered released if it's available to the public via the API, via the chatgpt app or website, or via codex.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves yes if a model called GPT-6, or any variant thereof (gpt-6 sol, gpt-6 codex, gpt 6.1, etc) is released by OpenAI by September 15th 11:59 pm ET. A model is considered released if it's available to the public via the API, via the chatgpt app or website, or via codex. It resolves no otherwise. I may trade on this market.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ11.9K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ27.7K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 96.8%
- Resolves
- Sep 4, 2026