Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Polymarket)
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- September 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 21, 2026 at 8:48 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 2, 2026 at 9:18 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- September 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.