Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
260 mana
Total volume
2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 1:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 67.3% (up from 57.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 260 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
67.3%
+9.8 percentage points
over 24 hours57.5% → 67.3%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (9.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
28%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
18
Trades
32
over 55 days
Largest order
300 mana
2K mana traded across these 32 trades (last 55 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
These are races rated solid Republican by cook in August. Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
These are races rated solid Republican by cook in August. Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Will democrats win at least one? The district name and number is what is used, the names are simply a guide for the incumbents name. Any house district that is changed by redisticting changes won’t be included. E.g I have removed Missouri 5 from the list as it has become a safe Dem seat if the redistricting is officially over turned. Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the list of House races that this market applies to: AL-01 (Moore) AL-03 (Rogers) AL-04 (Aderholt) AL-05 (Strong) AL-06 (Palmer) AR-01 (Crawford) AR-02 (Hill) AR-03 (Womack) AR-04 (Westerman) AZ-05 (Biggs) AZ-08 (Hamadeh) AZ-09 (Gosar) CA-05 (McClintock) CA-20 (Fong) CA-23 (Obernolte) CA-40 (MERGED SEAT) CO-04 (Boebert) FL-01 (Patronis) FL-02 (Dunn) FL-03 (Cammack) FL-04 (Bean) FL-05 (Rutherford) FL-06 (Fine) FL-08 (Haridopolos) FL-11 (Webster) FL-12 (Bilirakis) Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market refers to the following US House races: TN-06 (Rose) TN-07 (Van Epps) TN-08 (Kustoff) TN-09 (Cohen) TX-01 (Moran) TX-02 (Crenshaw) TX-03 (Self) TX-04 (Fallon) TX-05 (Gooden) TX-06 (Ellzey) TX-08 (Luttrell) TX-09 (Green) TX-10 (McCaul) TX-11 (Pfluger) TX-12 (Goldman) TX-13 (Jackson) TX-14 (Weber) TX-17 (Sessions) TX-19 (Arrington) TX-21 (Roy) TX-22 (Nehls) TX-24 (Van Duyne) TX-25 (Williams) TX-26 (Gill) TX-27 (Cloud) TX-31 (Carter) TX-32 (Johnson) TX-36 (Babin) TX-38 (Hunt) UT-02 (Moore) UT-03 (Maloy) UT-04 (Kennedy) VA-05 (McGuire) VA-06 (Cline) VA-09 (Griffith) WA-04 (Newhouse) WA-05 (Baumgartner) WI-05 (Fitzgerald) WI-06 (Grothman) WI-07 (Tiffany) WI-08 (Wied) WV-01 (Miller) WV-02 (Moore) WY-AL (Hageman) Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether Democrats win any of the following specific House races: KY-05 (Rogers) LA-01 (Scalise) LA-03 (Higgins) LA-04 (Johnson) LA-05 (Letlow) LA-06 (Fields) MD-01 (Harris) MI-01 (Bergman) MI-02 (Moolenaar) MI-05 (Walberg) MI-09 (McClain) MN-06 (Emmer) MN-07 (Fischbach) MN-08 (Stauber) MO-02 (Wagner) MO-03 (Onder) MO-04 (Alford) MO-06 (Graves) MO-07 (Burlison) MO-08 (Smith) MS-01 (Kelly) MS-03 (Guest) MS-04 (Ezell) MT-02 (Downing) NC-03 (Murphy) NC-05 (Foxx) NC-06 (McDowell) NC-07 (Rouzer) NC-08 (Harris) NC-09 (Hudson) NC-10 (Harrigan) NC-13 (Knott) NC-14 (Moore) ND-AL (Fedorchak) NE-01 (Flood) NE-03 (Smith) NJ-02 (Van Drew) NJ-04 (Smith) NV-02 (Amodei) NY-01 (LaLota) NY-02 (Garbarino) NY-11 (Malliotakis) NY-21 (Stefanik) NY-23 (Langworthy) NY-24 (Tenney) OH-02 (Taylor) OH-04 (Jordan) OH-05 (Latta) OH-06 (Rulli) OH-08 (Davidson) OH-12 (Balderson) OH-14 (Joyce) OK-01 (Hern) OK-02 (Brecheen) OK-03 (Lucas) OK-04 (Cole) OK-05 (Bice) OR-02 (Bentz) PA-09 (Meuser) PA-11 (Smucker) PA-13 (Joyce) PA-14 (Reschenthaler) PA-15 (Thompson) PA-16 (Kelly) SC-02 (Wilson) SC-03 (Biggs) SC-04 (Timmons) SC-05 (Norman) SC-07 (Fry) SD-AL (Johnson) TN-01 (Harshbarger) TN-02 (Burchett) TN-03 (Fleischmann) TN-04 (DesJarlais) TN-05 (Ogles) Update 2026-09-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the list of House races that are included in this market: FL-15 Lee FL-16 OPEN (Buchanan) FL-17 Steube FL-18 Franklin FL-19 OPEN (Donalds) FL-21 Mast FL-26 Díaz-Balart FL-28 Giménez GA-01 OPEN (Carter) GA-03 Jack GA-07 McCormick GA-08 Scott GA-09 Clyde GA-10 OPEN (Collins) GA-11 OPEN (Loudermilk) GA-12 Allen GA-14 Fuller IA-04 OPEN (Feenstra) ID-01 Fulcher ID-02 Simpson IL-12 Bost IL-15 Miller IL-16 LaHood IN-02 Yakym IN-03 Stutzman IN-04 Baird IN-05 Spartz IN-06 Shreve IN-08 Messmer IN-09 Houchin KS-01 Mann KS-02 Schmidt KS-04 Estes KY-01 Comer KY-02 Guthrie KY-04 OPEN (Massie)
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 9.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (57.5% → 67.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 1:32 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 9.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next395 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+9.824H+9.87D+9.8
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