Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
43 mana
Total volume
13.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Abdul El-Sayed win by 7 points or more?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9:38 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 18.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 43 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
18.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 29, 9:38 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
60%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
33
Trades
67
over 47 days
Largest order
810 mana
12.1K mana traded across these 67 trades (last 47 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$12.1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Abdul El-Sayed said in May he would beat Mike Rogers by 7. Will he?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Abdul El-Sayed said in May he would beat Mike Rogers by 7. Will he? This question resolves yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race by greater than or equal to 7 points. It resolves no otherwise. I will use the certified results as ground truth, but I will probably resolve this the day after the election based on the New York Times results page if the resolution is obvious. I may trade on this market.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 5:49 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 10:00 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next496 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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