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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 8m ago

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?

Market probability
59.0%
+2 percentage points
over 24 hours57.0%59.0%
5 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$37.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 7, 4:31 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 3.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 104 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next452 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting91%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life <1h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$52.8K

Liquidity

$4.9K

Total volume

$139.4K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
2.0 pts
Best bid
58.0%
Best ask
60.0%
7-day range
57.0% – 67.5%
Resolves
Sep 12, 2026
Change (pts)1H-3.06H+2.024H+2.07D+2.0