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Home/AI / Tech/Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?
ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 2m ago

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?

Market probability
11.6%
+1.6 percentage points
over 24 hours10.0% → 11.6%
29 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (1.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$905.7 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 1, 4:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ713.4

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Change (pts)1H+0.56H+1.624H+1.67D+1.6
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

33/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement42

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity63

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next638 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
11.6%
7-day range
10.0% – 11.6%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

33/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+44
  • Price steadiness+17
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score33 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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