ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Monday, October 5, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-16.023%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.042%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.023%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Moved up 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.589%Confirmed move
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.00%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

A fixed structure (not buoy or the like) at Null Island by Christmas Eve 2031, over 75 cm by 75 cm?

Moved down 26.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-26.717%Likely noise
Will I get accepted to Inkhaven?

Moved up 13.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+13.859%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-2.537%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 0.1 pts
Polymarket0%Kalshi1%

Settled (48 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.