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Sunday, October 4, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 13.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 33.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (10 in 24h)
- Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?Polymarketno
- Will OBI (Brazilian Olympiad in Informatics) change its date?Manifoldno
- Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?Manifoldyes
- Daily CoinflipManifoldyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 3?Polymarketno
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 3?Polymarketno
- Will inclusionAI (Ling) release a model at least as strong as Qwen3.8 27B per Artificial Analysis in 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will Tesla's Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries match or beat its Q2 2026 total of 480,126?Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.