ProbCastOdds Reliability

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.819%Confirmed move
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.581%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.013%Confirmed move
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved down 3.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.226%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.081%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)

Moved up 85.1 pts over 24h — driven largely by a single account, not broad repricing.

+85.199%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?

Moved up 57.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+57.462%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?

Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-30.034%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 1.0 pts
Polymarket20%Kalshi21%

Settled (44 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.