ManifoldUncategorizedUpdated 6m ago

Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again this week (by October 9, 2026)?

Final price
97.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.

Final market price
97.4%
Event deadline
October 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again this week (by October 9, 2026)? The final Manifold price was 97.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.

Market data as of
October 6, 2026 at 5:56 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 6, 2026 at 6:02 PM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
October 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

Resolves YES if, after this market’s creation and through Friday October 9, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC) inclusive, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday value of at least 7,816.70, its all-time intraday high at creation (August 13, 2026).

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if, after this market’s creation and through Friday October 9, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC) inclusive, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday value of at least 7,816.70, its all-time intraday high at creation (August 13, 2026). An exact tie counts; a record closing value is not required. Otherwise resolves NO. The threshold stays fixed. Earlier touches before creation do not count. Only the cash price index counts: SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs and total-return indexes do not qualify. Regular sessions include scheduled shortened sessions and the official closing value. Erroneous ticks subsequently corrected by the data provider do not count. Resolution uses WSJ SPX historical daily High data, with S&P Dow Jones Indices data taking precedence if they disagree. A corrected official session high can establish YES even if the live touch was missed. YES may resolve early once verified. Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars [link preview]

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ512

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ512

Category
Uncategorized
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
97.4%
Resolves
Oct 6, 2026

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