Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again this week (by October 9, 2026)?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.
- Final market price
- 97.4%
- Event deadline
- October 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again this week (by October 9, 2026)? The final Manifold price was 97.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.4%.
- Market data as of
- October 6, 2026 at 5:56 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 6, 2026 at 6:02 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 6, 2026 at 4:47 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 6m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if, after this market’s creation and through Friday October 9, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC) inclusive, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday value of at least 7,816.70, its all-time intraday high at creation (August 13, 2026).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if, after this market’s creation and through Friday October 9, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC) inclusive, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday value of at least 7,816.70, its all-time intraday high at creation (August 13, 2026). An exact tie counts; a record closing value is not required. Otherwise resolves NO. The threshold stays fixed. Earlier touches before creation do not count. Only the cash price index counts: SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs and total-return indexes do not qualify. Regular sessions include scheduled shortened sessions and the official closing value. Erroneous ticks subsequently corrected by the data provider do not count. Resolution uses WSJ SPX historical daily High data, with S&P Dow Jones Indices data taking precedence if they disagree. A corrected official session high can establish YES even if the live touch was missed. YES may resolve early once verified. Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars [link preview]
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ512
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ512
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 97.4%
- Resolves
- Oct 6, 2026