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Wednesday, October 7, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 27.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 34.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (26 in 24h)
- Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026Manifoldyes
- Is Digger (2026) a musical?Manifoldno
- Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King)Manifoldyes
- OpenAI Releases New Batch of Mathematics Results before November?Manifoldyes
- Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)Manifoldyes
- Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again by the end of 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again by the end of October 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again this week (by October 9, 2026)?Manifoldyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.