👽 Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 2.4%.
- Final market price
- 2.4%
- Event deadline
- December 20, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 2.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 2.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
👽 Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027? The final Manifold price was 2.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 2.4%.
- Market data as of
- October 10, 2026 at 3:39 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 20, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 11d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, a recognized scientific institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team publicly announces the detection of a credible candidate signal or other technosignature that could plausibly originate from extraterrestrial intelligence and warrants further scientific investigation. The announcement does not need to confirm the existence of extrat…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, a recognized scientific institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team publicly announces the detection of a credible candidate signal or other technosignature that could plausibly originate from extraterrestrial intelligence and warrants further scientific investigation. The announcement does not need to confirm the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. The candidate may later be determined to have a natural or human-made explanation. To qualify, the announcement must: • originate from, or be formally supported by, a recognized scientific or academic institution, observatory, SETI organization, or research team; • explicitly characterize the detection as a candidate or potential technosignature, potential evidence of extraterrestrial technology or intelligence, or an equivalent scientific characterization; • remain scientifically unresolved as a possible extraterrestrial technosignature at the time of the qualifying announcement. Independent verification is not required for YES, provided the above criteria are met. Claims originating solely from individuals, social media, tabloids, anonymous sources, alleged government leaks, UAP/UFO sightings, or non-scientific organizations do not qualify. Evidence of extraterrestrial microbial or other non-intelligent life does not qualify unless it also constitutes potential evidence of extraterrestrial technology or intelligence. If no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline, the market resolves NO. The market intentionally closes before the resolution deadline to preserve a meaningful prediction window and reduce trading on information already beginning to emerge.