ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Thursday, October 8, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Moved up 19.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+19.725%Confirmed move
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+12.027%Confirmed move
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.038%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.030%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.577%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Firmus IPO in 2026?

Moved down 83.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-83.69%Likely noise
ElevenLabs Acquired before 2028

Moved down 25.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-25.425%Likely noise
Will I be below 260 pounds by January 31, 2027? (1/31/27) **Today 321.6 lbs. **

Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-30.020%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 1.5 pts
Polymarket16%Kalshi17%

Settled (28 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.