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Friday, October 9, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 13.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 28.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 0.1 ptsSettled (38 in 24h)
- Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?Manifoldno
- Will silver outperform gold over the next week?Manifoldno
- Will Daniel Lord livestream between September 28 and October 9 of 2026?Manifoldno
- Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 9, 2026? (Closes early)Manifoldyes
- Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Polymarketno
- Will I get the openai pro subscription this weekManifoldno
- Will SPX reach 8,000 this week (by October 9, 2026)?Manifoldno
- Will Falcons Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.