Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
707.4 mana
Total volume
3.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Russia deliver the promised 4.8 million tons of diesel?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 28.4% (down from 37.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 707.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
28.4%
−8.6 percentage points
over 24 hours37.0% → 28.4%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.7 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
52%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
19
Trades
46
over 47h
Largest order
500 mana
3.3K mana traded across these 46 trades (last 47h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$3.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
[image]Donald Trump has claimed that 4.8 million tons of diesel will be delivered by Russia over the next few months. Will this happen?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
[image]Donald Trump has claimed that 4.8 million tons of diesel will be delivered by Russia over the next few months. Will this happen? Resolves based on my personal understanding. Because the statement was very loose ("American and Global Marketplace", "within a short period of time", "based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries"), the actually specific criteria (300,000 tons of diesel in October, 500,000 tons in November, 1,000,000 tons in December, 3,000,000 tons soon after) will be required tightly.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 8.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (37.0% → 28.4%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:35 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 3.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 19 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next991 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
707.4 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
3.3K mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 28.4%
- 7-day range
- 24.3% – 37.0%
- Resolves
- Jan 31, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H+3.724H-8.67D-8.6
Related markets
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
3%YESTrust 69
Polymarket$28.4K 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
12%YESTrust 65
Polymarket$36.5K 24h
Will Russia blame Ukraine for its recent plague outbreak in the next 30 days?
5%YESTrust 45
Manifold87.8 mana 24h
Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?
14%YESTrust 6
Manifold109 mana 24h
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to stop mutual attacks on energy targets for at least a week by EOY 2026?
11%YESTrust 32
Manifold75 mana 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$197K 24h