Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
As of Oct 7, 2026, 10:01 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 40.0% (up from 22.1% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ133 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ500 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall. Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall. *United States: Includes the 50 US states, Washington D.C., and Atlantic and Eastern Pacific inhabited US territories (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, but NOT Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands). Source of Truth: Official advisories or final Best Track data published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 17.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (22.1% → 40.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 7, 10:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ133
Liquidity
Ṁ500
Total volume
Ṁ897.6
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 40.0%
- 7-day range
- 22.1% – 40.0%
- Resolves
- Nov 30, 2026