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Saturday, October 10, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 46.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 18.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (20 in 24h)
- Will Tetra apply to that job by 11th October?Manifoldyes
- Will Tetra clear the junk off the treadmill in the next three days?Manifoldno
- Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?Manifoldno
- Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027?Manifoldyes
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
- Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.