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Sunday, October 11, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 4.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 36.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (12 in 24h)
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will I do chores and digital decluttering for 45+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?Polymarketyes
- Will I avoid audiovisual media before 5 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will I study for 150+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifoldyes
- Daily CoinflipManifoldno
- Will my current Manifold streak last until 2027?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Polymarketno
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