Will Angie Craig be appointed to Amy Klobuchars Senate Seat?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 14, 4:26 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Representative Angie Craig is officially appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Amy Klobuchar.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Representative Angie Craig is officially appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Amy Klobuchar. This market resolves to NO if: Another individual is appointed to fill the vacancy in Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat. Amy Klobuchar does not vacate her Senate seat, or no official appointment is made to fill her seat, on or before December 31, 2027. The seat becomes vacant and is filled directly by a special election without any interim appointment being made. Official announcements from the Office of the Governor of Minnesota, major news outlets (such as MPR News, The Minnesota Star Tribune, or the Associated Press), or the official U.S. Senate website (senate.gov) will serve as the sources of truth for this market. Background In January 2026, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy for Governor of Minnesota. Because her current Senate term runs until January 2031, winning the gubernatorial election in November 2026 would require her to vacate her Senate seat. Under Minnesota law, the sitting governor has the authority to make a temporary appointment to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy until a subsequent special election can be held. Simultaneously, U.S. Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are competing in the August 2026 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith. Political analysts and commentators have speculated that the runner-up of that primary, or another prominent state DFL figure, could be a logical choice for appointment to Klobuchar's vacant seat should she win the governorship. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 3, 2031 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 5:48 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.