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Monday, October 12, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.059%Confirmed move

Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.020%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality PhD thesis to a single prompt by EOY 2027 in any formal scientific field?

Moved up 25.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+25.075%Likely noise

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Moved down 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-20.528%Likely noise

Will Trump livestream an execution?

Moved up 5.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+5.334%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 1.0 pts

Polymarket17%Kalshi16%

Settled (29 in 24h)

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 October 5-11?Polymarketno
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11?Polymarketno

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.