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Tuesday, October 13, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 29.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 2.0 ptsSettled (23 in 24h)
- Will "The Social Reckoning" earn more than $23M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekendManifoldno
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Polymarketno
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.