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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.017%Confirmed move
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.045%Confirmed move
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.912%Confirmed move
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.011%Confirmed move
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.088%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in December 2026?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+23.544%Likely noise
Will Anthropic pull out as a sponsor of the Caltech Mathathon?

Moved up 63.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+63.792%Likely noise
Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?

Moved down 48.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-48.735%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 1.0 pts
Polymarket81%Kalshi82%

Settled (35 in 24h)

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