Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Thursday, October 15, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 52.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 22.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 2.0 ptsSettled (26 in 24h)
- Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?Polymarketyes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Polymarketyes
- Will a famous person reply to my DM?Manifoldno
- Will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Polymarketno
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Polymarketyes
- Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 15th, 2026?Manifoldno
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.