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Friday, October 16, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 32.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 82.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (24 in 24h)
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Tesla announce on October 15, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?Manifoldyes
- Will 0x7A68AB21211e1338b1b019FFD65f69a0fcA8c6A4 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 15th 11:59 pm UTCManifoldno
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will a Tesla Roadster hover (all 4 wheels off the ground under its own thrust) at a live demo by October 31, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?Polymarketyes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Polymarketyes
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