Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
DeepTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$33.8K
Bid-ask spread
0.9 pts
24h volume
$84K
Total volume
$0
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 19?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 4:47 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 99.5% (up from 99.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $84K traded in the past 24 hours, $33.8K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.9 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Market probability
99.5%
+0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours99.0% → 99.5%
Resolving soon
Deep, easy-to-trade market, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
StrongIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
21%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
77
Trades
171
over 3h
Largest order
$6.9K
$85.6K traded across these 171 trades (last 3h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$85.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Katie Zacharia ceases to be White House Press Secretary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Katie Zacharia ceases to be White House Press Secretary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Katie Zacharia's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If Katie Zacharia has not yet taken office as White House Press Secretary at market creation, this market will also resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, her appointment is withdrawn or it is announced that she will not take the position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Katie Zacharia and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 4:54 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
The market prices the Oct 31 and Dec 31 deadlines almost identically.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±13 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
57Medium
Where the price path tends to go next286 observed
- Stable consensus92%
- Choppy / mean-reverting5%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-0.36H+0.524H+0.57D+0.5
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