Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
228.6 mana
Total volume
228.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Katie Zacharia (press secretary) lasts longer than a mooch?
As of Oct 14, 2026, 4:01 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 76.5% (up from 75.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 228.6 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
76.5%
+1 percentage point
over 24 hours75.5% → 76.5%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
44%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
11
over 3h
Largest order
100 mana
225.8 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 3h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$225.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 23, 2026 at 11:05 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 4:10 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next747 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.024H+1.07D+1.0
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