ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Saturday, October 17, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.027%Confirmed move
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Moved up 8.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.159%Confirmed move
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Moved down 4.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.97%Confirmed move
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.032%Confirmed move
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.075%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will AOC endorse or appear at a campaign event for Troy Jackson?

Moved up 42.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+42.796%Likely noise
JOE

Moved down 29.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.364%Likely noise
VEE

Moved down 27.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-27.260%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 0.1 pts
Polymarket0%Kalshi1%

Settled (34 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.