ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Sunday, October 18, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.59%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.082%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?

Moved up 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.999%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.098%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?

Moved up 4.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.396%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1?

Moved up 34.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+34.773%Likely noise
Will Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before the end of 2027?

Moved down 23.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-23.127%Likely noise
Will California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 17.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+17.957%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 0.4 pts
Polymarket0%Kalshi1%

Settled (12 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.