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Monday, October 19, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 4.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 31.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 37.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 19.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (43 in 24h)
- Will Steam set a new all-time concurrent user record in October 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will I do chores and digital decluttering for 45+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will I study for 180+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 12-18?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 12-18?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 12-18?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.